Elon Musk Critical minerals Resolves in 7 days

Will Elon buy this $5 stock in the next 7 days?

73%chance

Share price: Under $5
Market cap: ~$2.5B
Deposit value: $8–16T est.

What's behind the odds

A deposit of critical materials estimated at $8 to $16 trillion has been found in America's own backyard: cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, copper and rare earth elements. One small, government-backed company holds the exclusive rights to an area the size of South Carolina. In a recent test run it pulled up more than 3,000 tons in a single haul.

Elon's companies are among the largest private buyers of these exact materials, and most of his supply comes from China. On January 1st, a Pentagon rule cuts off Chinese imports for specific American companies, and his are at the top of the list. He needs a new source fast, and after the SpaceX IPO he has the cash to buy one. At a $2.5 billion market cap, this company would be a small check.

Timeline

June 12SpaceX goes public at $2.1 trillion, the biggest IPO in Wall Street history.
Weeks laterElon moves on a $40 billion AI coding firm.
Weeks laterHe spends $1 billion on a gas turbine company to power Grok.
January 1The Pentagon's ban on Chinese imports takes effect for Elon's companies.

Rules

This market resolves Yes if Elon Musk, or an entity he controls, publicly discloses a purchase of this stock within 7 days of this market opening. Otherwise it resolves No.